Upper Millcreek Canyon road is closed for access until Dec. 15, according to the U.S. Forest Service's Uinta-Wasatch-Cache road conditions page. The closure comes as the Forest Service warns hikers across the national forest to avoid traveling on wet trails and routes to prevent irreparable damage from foot and tire traffic on saturated ground.
Statewide soil moisture reached nearly 78% saturation by Nov. 2, a level that has never been recorded in the fall since modern measurements began 20 years ago. This level is nearly four percentage points above the normal peak seen during spring snowmelt. Jordan Clayton, a hydrologist for the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and director of the Utah Snow Survey, stated that the state is in uncharted territory.
Many trails in the national forest are currently behind closed gates, under snow, or are very wet. The Forest Service stated that citations will be issued to anyone accessing a road, trail, or area beyond a gate.
Drought conditions across the state have eased due to El Niño-driven storms that dumped approximately 3.4 trillion gallons of rain across Utah in the two weeks before Nov. 5. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor as reported by KSL, the share of Utah in some form of drought dropped from over 90% to about two-thirds.
Approximately 36% of the state remains in severe or extreme drought, which is a decrease from over 50% the prior week. Utah's collective reservoir system is at 50% capacity, which is 10 percentage points lower than the same time last year.
Higher fall soil moisture is linked to more efficient spring snowpack runoff, the system that provides roughly 95% of Utah's water. Clayton noted it is too early to determine how these conditions will play out because they are significantly higher than anything documented in the fall during the NRCS network's 20-year history. He noted that snow must arrive, as moist soils alone are not enough.
Long-range models suggest moisture may linger through at least November, though higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures could affect snow levels. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is expected to release its final outlook for meteorological winter later in November.
