A strengthening El Niño is expected to persist through early 2027, with climate experts forecasting a high probability of a historic event that could exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. The phenomenon, which has seen sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 4.0 degrees Celsius in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific, remains under an advisory status as of Oct. 8, 2026.
Strengthening Oceanic Patterns
The Climate Prediction Center reported on Oct. 8, 2026, that El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January-March 2027. Current forecasts indicate an 83% chance of this sustained strength through the first quarter of 2027.
Oceanic observations show that the Niño-3.4 index has reached +2.1 degrees Celsius, while the Niño-3 index has reached +3.0 degrees Celsius. Subsurface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have remained in excess of +10.0 degrees Celsius at depth, reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline.
Historic Event Probabilities
The potential for a historic event is significant, with the Climate Prediction Center noting an 83% chance of an event exceeding previous strengths since 1950 for the October-December period. While the magnitude of such an event increases the likelihood of consistent El Niño impacts, officials noted those impacts are not guaranteed.
Atmospheric conditions have shown enhanced convection and rainfall from the central to the eastern Pacific, while rainfall remains suppressed over Indonesia. Additionally, both the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices have been significantly negative.
Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
A prior report from the Climate Prediction Center on Sept. 17, 2026, suggested that the October-November-December 2026 temperature outlook favored above-normal temperatures for much of the region west of the Rockies, including the Northern Great Basin.
Regarding precipitation, the Sept. 17 outlook indicated enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation amounts from the southern half of California eastward across much of the Four Corners region. This region includes parts of Southern Utah.
Current Snow Water Equivalent
Current snow water equivalent data from the Utah State University Climate Center shows varying water shed percentages across the state. As of Oct. 2026, the Utah Lake area shows a significant increase with a water shed average of 594.58%, while the Strawberry area shows 704.45%.
In contrast, other areas show lower water shed averages, such as Kanab at 35.94% and Paria at 30.63%. The Lower Beaver area reported a water shed average of 5.89%.
Forecast Status
The current ENSO status remains under an El Niño Advisory. The Climate Prediction Center is scheduled to release the next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion on Nov. 12, 2026.
