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Product Timestamp: 2026-08-23 04:13 UTC
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FXUS65 KSLC 230413
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1013 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026
.UPDATE...Monsoon moisture across the region continues to fuel
showers and thunderstorms late this evening. These are being aided
in part by a shortwave trough lifting through the Interior Pacific
Northwest, which is allowing sufficient ascent within a mean
southwesterly flow to maintain nocturnal convection. With the
elevated flow aloft, sufficient deep layer shear allowed for
several rounds of strong to severe convection over the north, with
a couple of supercells earlier. Although MUCAPE persists, a stable
layer near the surface owing to earlier convection is keeping
ongoing activity in check. Anticipate this activity to persist
into the overnight hours, gradually trending downward with time as
instability slowly wanes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall
across most of the region through the weekend.
- A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms is outlooked
for Sunday afternoon and evening across much of northern Utah.
There is a 10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph with
these thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION, Issued 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026...
Increased moisture across the region will support
thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall rates. With relatively
slow storm motions today, already seeing convection anchored on
terrain training in locations and producing localized flooding of
small streams and dry washes. Will need to continue to monitor
central and southern Utah through the evening as rainfall rates in
excess of 0.50-0.75 inches per hour have been observed. The most
prone locations will be slot canyons, normally dry washes, slick
rock areas, areas with poor drainage and of course the numerous
recent burn scars across the region.
Across northwestern Utah, CAMS suggest the threat of strong to
severe microburst winds. One inhibiting factor will be the mid-
morning to early afternoon convection that moved across
northwestern Utah. This likely stabilized the atmosphere a
bit...and additional convective potential may be suppressed for
several hours. While earlier runs of the HRRR showed significant
wind gusts impacting northwestern Utah and perhaps the Wasatch
Front in the 21Z-02Z timeframe, later runs have largely shifted
away from this solution. Mesoanalysis correlates a fair amount of
inhibition...and guidance suggests this CIN may not be overcome by
the end of peak heating.
Sunday looks to be a potentially interesting day convection-wise.
A weak area of convergence associated with a Pacific trough will
shift into northwestern Utah. Mean HREF SBCAPE values will near
1000 J/kg across much of northern Utah by noon to 1 PM. This
combined with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts and general
synoptic scale lift will support convective development across
much of Utah after noon. The most intense convection will likely
be across northern Utah. HREF suggests a neighborhood probability
of wind gusts in excess of 55 mph around 15-25%, especially near
and west of the Great Salt Lake, and 10% or so in excess of 60
mph. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked this area with a
slight risk (level 2/5) for Sunday afternoon and evening including
the Wasatch Front.
Across central and southern Utah, another day of thunderstorms
with the threat of heavy rainfall is expected. Peak rainfall rates
in guidance are notably lower than Saturday, correlating well with
a net drying trend. That said, the threat of at least isolated
flash flooding in the most prone locations will continue Sunday
afternoon and evening, especially across central and southern
Utah.
The Pacific trough will finally shift into the northern High
Plains, shifting any large scale forcing for convection to the
east. Given there wasn't a front to sweep out the low-level
moisture in the low desert areas, expect the threat of isolated
flash flooding to persist in any areas that develop convection
through at least Monday...if not longer.
&&
.AVIATION...
KSLC...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into the
overnight hours. Occasional lightning and gusty outflow winds to
30 kts will be possible with storms which pass near the terminal.
Away from outflows, winds should be predominantly southerly
overnight through Sunday morning, with another chance of showers
and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue across northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming into the overnight hours, gradually diminishing with time.
Frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds to 30 kts can be
expected with stronger storms. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period, with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing across the region after 18Z Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026...
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will become more
isolated through early Monday, and largely tied to terrain. Any
showers and thunderstorms this weekend will have the threat of
strong, gusty microburst winds.
Over the work-week, valley humidities will fall slowly each day,
reaching near critical to critical levels as early as Monday.
There is little sign of an additional monsoon surge after this
weekend until after the next weekend.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Seaman/Kruse
AVIATION...Seaman
FIRE WEATHER...Kruse
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
