The Bureau of Reclamation released the February 24-Month Study today, highlighting deteriorating hydrologic conditions across the Colorado River Basin. A lack of precipitation over the past month has caused the most probable water year inflow forecast for Lake Powell to drop by 1.5 million-acre feet since January, leaving it approximately 3.0 million-acre feet lower than November projections.
This loss is roughly equivalent to a 50-foot decrease in elevation for Lake Powell.
The water year inflow is currently estimated at only 52% of average. For the first time, the February 24-Month Study projects that Lake Powell could decline to specific low levels based on most probable projections.
The study predicts the reservoir could reach 3,490 feet by December 2026, which is the minimum power pool level. At this elevation, Glen Canyon Dam's ability to release water is reduced and hydropower production can no longer occur. Additionally, the projection suggests the level could hit 3,476 feet in March 2027, marking the lowest elevation on record since filling and further limiting water releases from the dam.
Acting Commissioner Scott Cameron stated that the basin's poor hydrologic outlook emphasizes the need for collaboration as Basin States work with Reclamation to develop new operating guidelines for the Colorado River system. He noted that coordination with partners and the use of available tools will be essential to manage reservoirs and protect infrastructure.
To support Lake Powell's elevation, Reclamation began adjusting monthly releases on December 1, 2025, to temporarily retain more water in the reservoir. Additional operational tools remain available through 2026 and may be implemented if conditions continue to deteriorate. Reclamation is continuing to monitor hydrologic conditions to guide decisions supporting the long-term stability of the Colorado River system.
