Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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090
FXUS65 KSLC 121923
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
123 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures across the region peak today, with many
daily, monthly, and all- time records being challenged,
particularly over northern portions of the area.
- Temperatures will gradually become less hot during the upcoming
week as monsoonal moisture moves into the area. This will
increase the threat of precipitation and thus flash flooding,
particularly over southern Utah, for much of this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...We are on record temperature watch this afternoon
and evening across Utah and southwest Wyoming as an anomalously
strong ridge of high pressure amplifies across the Rockies. 700
mb temperatures are forecast to maximize around 20-22C late this
afternoon; to put this in context, the highest 700 mb temperature
ever recorded from an upper air sounding at KSLC stands at 20.2C,
observed on 7/13/2002. Also of note, the current 20.2C record
coincides with one of the most significant and widespread
heatwaves for our area, and resulted in SLC recording its second
occurrence on record of an all- time high temperature of 107
degrees. Other locations such as Logan and Evanston are also
likely (over 90% chance) to see highs shatter their current all-
time records of 103 and 95, respectively. Park City will also near
its all-time record of 99 today, but with lower probability to
meet or exceed it, around a 30% chance.
Extreme Heat Warnings continue through Monday morning for most of
the region, but will be allowed to drop off across southern Utah
as a surge of monsoonal moisture begins to move into the area and
limits daytime highs due to increasing cloud cover. The Extreme
Heat Warnings continue Monday into Tuesday morning for the
remainder of Utah and southwest Wyoming given highs only cool a
couple degrees through Monday. Overnight lows also remain warm, around
the mid-70s for most locations, exacerbating heat impacts through
this period.
We will see inklings of this monsoonal surge today as isolated
high-based showers and thunderstorms develop across southwest Utah
this afternoon and evening. Given lower-levels remain dry today,
main impacts from any cells that develop include gusty and erratic
outflow winds to 50 mph as well as dry lightning strikes.
Otherwise, monsoonal moisture becomes widespread across central
and southern Utah on Monday with PWATs approaching 1" across the
area. Deep moisture will continue to become more widespread the
remainder of Utah on Tuesday and linger through the remainder of
the week. When coupled with overall light upper-level steering
flow, this pattern will result in an increased flash flooding
risk through this week, particularly for central and southern
Utah. Areal coverage of storms will vary each day, resulting in
varying levels of flash flood risk through the week. Regardless,
conditions will be favorable for the threat of flash flooding
especially for slot canyons, normally dry washes, and recent burn
scars.
&&
.AVIATION...
KSLC...VFR conditions with diurnally normal winds persist. There is
a 20-30% chance of southerly gusts 20-25 kts or so between 07-14Z
Monday. Winds then expected to shift northwesterly between ~18-20Z
Monday. There will then be potential for southerly outflow wind
gusts between, with timing most likely between 23Z Monday to 04Z
Tuesday.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of southern
and central Utah. This will bring potential for gusty and erratic
outflow winds, with decreasing threat noted at areas further north
nearer the Idaho border. Aside from this, winds largely anticipated
to follow a typically diurnal pattern, with modest gusts 20-25 kts
or so at typically breezy or exposed terminals. Conditions expected
to remain VFR, though any stronger storm directly atop a terminal
may result in brief reductions to CIGS/VIS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...An anomalously strong area of high pressure moves
overhead today, resulting in record heat and very dry conditions
across the region. Some increasing mid-level moisture ahead of
our main monsoonal moisture push will result in isolated high-
based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across
southwest Utah, capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow
winds and dry lightning strikes. Monsoonal moisture overspreads
most of central and southern Utah on Monday, allowing for more
scattered storm coverage with potential for heavy rainfall under
stronger cores. Showers and thunderstorm become widespread across
the state by Tuesday, bringing flash flood concerns and increasing
chances for wetting rains through the remainder of the week.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Extreme Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ101>108-114-
116-118>121.
Extreme Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ115-122-
128>131.
WY...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ021.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
