Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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270
FXUS65 KSLC 270434
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1034 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1056 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026...
- Isolated to scattered convection can be expected across northern
Utah on Monday with more isolated convection across southern
Utah. Moisture will increase again by Tuesday, bringing an
increased threat of flash flooding, before decreasing
substantially from Thursday onward.
- Hot temperatures as high as the lower 100s can be expected for
the valleys of northwest Utah as well as the Uinta Basin through
Monday, with highs in the upper 100s for portions of southern
Utah, including Zion National Park. Overnight lows will remain
in the 70s to around 80, limiting the potential for overnight
relief from the heat.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered over the OK/TX
Panhandles and northeast NM this evening. Utah saw a slight
influx of moisture today, with PWATs across southern Utah climbing
to 1-1.2 inches while northern Utah remained under 1 inch. Aided
by this increased moisture and a subtle vort lobe rotating around
the high and lifting through Utah, increased shower and
thunderstorm activity was noted today. While thunderstorms are
waning with the loss of daytime heating, rain showers, generally
light, will continue to spread into northern Utah tonight as the
vort lobe continues to lift north, while they taper off across
southern Utah. These showers will continue through the day on
Monday across northern Utah, along with isolated thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Southern Utah should see generally isolated
showers and thunderstorms on Monday.
By Tuesday, the high pressure will shift closer to the Four
Corners region, bringing a more southerly flow to southern Utah
and Arizona, which should help spread more moisture into the area
and allowing for increased convective coverage. However, this
renewed moisture surge will be brief, as the high will continue to
gradually shift westward through the week. Towards the end of the
week, the high pressure will be centered too far west to favor the
monsoon pattern, leading to drier conditions. This drying trend
should begin on Thursday or Friday and will likely extend through
at least the first half of next week. Cluster analysis of global
ensembles are in good agreement on the general large-scale
evolution.
Otherwise, hot temperatures will remain in place areawide through
the week, with most valley areas seeing highs hovering near or
above 100F. Conditions will be exacerbated tonight through
Monday with cloud cover helping to maintain warm overnight lows.
Increasing precipitation midweek is expected to cool the airmass
enough to reduce HeatRisk to mostly Moderate in the valleys, but
when the airmass dries out again late week with strong high
pressure overhead, HeatRisk will increase again, with widespread
areas of Major to Extreme HeatRisk noted.
&&
.AVIATION...
KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through
the period. Mid level clouds with intermittent sprinkles/light
rain will continue through the overnight period before drying out
during the day. Convection will redevelop late tomorrow
afternoon/early evening with ~30% chance of storms impacting the
terminal. Mostly southerly winds overnight with intermittent gusty
and variable as showers move by, and northerly winds establish
during the afternoon.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for
the entire airspace through the period. Mid level clouds will bring
moisture up through the central and northern airspace overnight with
only light rain showers expected along with some intermittent gusty
and erratic winds. Conditions dry by morning with convection
redeveloping across the central and northern airspace in the late
afternoon. Background winds will remain light and diurnally driven.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1258 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026...
With moisture remaining in place across the central and
southern portions of Utah, expect daily shower and thunderstorm
activity each day through at least Wednesday. For northern Utah,
moisture content is already beginning to decrease, bringing low
chances for showers and thunderstorms for areas roughly north of
the I-80 corridor. Past Wednesday, the environment will dry
substantially which will allow for a downtrend in relative
humidity from Thursday through Saturday. For much of Utah,
afternoon relative humidity will fall back into the single-digits
to low-teens. In addition to to dry afternoon conditions, very
little, if any, humidity recovery is anticipated in northwestern
and west-central Utah starting Thursday night. A resurgence of
heat is also expected through the latter half of the week.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Monday night for UTZ101>107-114-
124-128-130.
Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ116-118>120.
Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT Monday night for UTZ131.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Webber
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
