No. 10 BYU will play for its playoff life this Saturday when it hosts Baylor. The matchup comes as the Bears remain in contention for the Big 12 title, holding only two conference losses and having outscored opponents 83-40 since firing Dave Aranda.
Statistical analysis suggests BYU's defense may force Baylor into a methodical offense. While Baylor's offense has been streaky, ranking 66th in points per drive but 114th in success rate, BYU's defense ranks second nationally in explosive pass rate allowed. This strength may counter the aggressive playstyle of Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway, who maintains an average depth of target of 15.7 yards when under pressure.
BYU's offense is expected to provide the most significant test for a Baylor defense that currently ranks 3rd in havoc rate and 15th in points per drive allowed. BYU's offense ranks 33rd in points per drive and 26th in yards per play, outperforming the efficiency of most Power Four offenses Baylor has faced this season. Specifically, BYU's offense will be the first Power Four unit Baylor has faced this year ranked better than 89th nationally in success rate.
The matchup also features a clash of efficiency and disruption. Baylor's defense ranks 3rd in havoc rate, with approximately one in five plays ending in a sack, interception, tackle for loss, or pass breakup. However, BYU's offense is ranked 7th nationally in avoiding havoc, allowing disruptive plays only 9.4% of the time. Additionally, BYU ranks 18th in short-down third conversion rate, while Baylor ranks 27th in third and fourth down conversions allowed.
Baylor's schedule includes remaining regular season games against BYU, Houston, and Texas Tech. The Bears' defense has also been noted for being elite, ranking 12th in red zone touchdown defense and 19th in success rate allowed.
