Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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783
FXUS65 KSLC 071936
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
136 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1050 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026...
- High based showers and thunderstorms will develop over northern
Utah and southwest Wyoming late this afternoon into the evening,
with any storms that develop capable of producing strong to
severe wind gusts, with the threat returning Wednesday afternoon
and evening.
- Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce
areas of critical fire weather conditions over some southern
Utah valleys this afternoon. The threat of critical fire weather
conditions will expand into the mountains of southern Utah for
Wednesday.
- There is increasing confidence that a notable heat wave will
develop over the weekend, with many valleys forecast to see
HeatRisk values in the red (major) range, and some northern Utah
valleys seeing values in the purple (extreme) range Saturday
into Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION, Issued 1050 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026...
A broad area of high pressure is centered over the
central United States this morning, with Utah and southwest
Wyoming under a breezy southwest flow on the back side of this
feature, enhanced by some shortwave energy moving over the top of
the ridge. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, with maxes
running up to 5F above seasonal normals. Though the southwest flow
is drawing some moisture northward, relative humidities will
still be low enough in some valleys of southern Utah to combine
with the breezy winds to result in areas of critical fire weather
conditions.
Guidance continues to indicate a setup favorable for another round
of strong to severe convection for northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming this afternoon. A shortwave is expected to move over
northern portions of the area late this afternoon into the early
evening with some decent jet support providing upper level
divergence. Combined with anticipated bulk effective shear of
30-40 kts, this has the potential to bring a bit of more organized
convection. Given the high based nature of these storms, primary
threat will be strong, gusty outflow winds and isolated dry
lightning. However, cannot rule out some hail. Overall, have
increased POPs a bit over northern Utah to account for the threat
and extended the mentionable POPs into the first part of the
overnight hours given model trends.
With the central US ridge expected to weaken tomorrow, the flow
aloft over the area is expected to have more of a westerly
component, tapping into a dry slot over the California coast. This
will drop relative humidities from southwest to northeast over the
forecast area, resulting in more widespread critical fire weather
conditions as winds remain elevated. Some moisture will remain
over parts of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, with more
shortwave energy expected to move through during the late
afternoon and early evening once again. This feature looks better
defined than the one expected today, with a weak boundary in
association with it, so if anything seeing better dynamics for
tomorrow compared to today, though the main threat will shift
slightly farther north.
Drier air is expected to continue to move in through the remainder
of the work week. By Friday, a ridge centered near southern Nevada
will start to expand, before the axis shifts overhead Saturday and
east of the area on Sunday. There is high confidence that this
will bring some of the hottest temperatures of the season so far,
particularly for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. HeatRisk
forecasts show red (major) values for many valleys across the
area, with perhaps the exception of the lowest southern Utah
valleys. By Sunday, there is an increasing chance of purple
(extreme) HeatRisk values for some northern Utah valleys,
including the Cache Valley and Wasatch Front. There is high
confidence that these highs will challenge at least daily records,
with some guidance indicating monthly records, and, in the case of
Logan, all-time records will be in play. Predictably, this will
significantly increase the chance of heat related illnesses across
the area over the upcoming weekend.
As the ridge continues east of the area early next week, there is
increasing confidence that temperatures will move from extremely
hot to just hot, with guidance showing highs "just" 5-10F above
seasonal normals by day seven. Increasing southerly flow could
also bring a return of moisture by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION, Issued 1157 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026...
KSLC...There is a low (~20%) chance that a few thunderstorms will
develop over the Oquirrhs and drift over the terminal between 19-22z
this afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing a brief
period of gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 25-30kts.
Outside of this, expect northwesterly winds to persist through the
afternoon. Outflow from storms over northwestern Utah arriving
around 03-04z is likely to produce a couple hours of gusty
northwesterly winds up to 20-30kts.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop once again this afternoon across two main
areas: northwestern Utah and across areas east of roughly KEVW-KHCR-
KBCE. Outside of these areas, isolated storms may still develop
across higher terrain, but will be weaker overall. Still, any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow
winds. VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon over portions of northern and eastern Utah. These storms
will be high-based, particularly for northern Utah, and will bring
the threat of isolated dry lightning into the early evening.
Meanwhile, breezy southerly winds will combine with continued dry
conditions over the valleys of southern Utah to produce areas of
critical fire weather conditions. A drying trend will begin
Wednesday, lasting through the upcoming weekend. With breezy
conditions persisting, much of central and southern Utah will see
areas of critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday before
winds decrease for Thursday. Strong high pressure will build for
the upcoming weekend, bringing very dry conditions and the
potential for record breaking heat by Sunday. Conditions will
become less hot to start the work week, with the potential for
moisture to return by the middle of next week.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ492-495-497-498.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ493-496.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Traphagan
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
