Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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165
FXUS65 KSLC 191654
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1054 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry conditions prevail areawide through the weekend.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Monday into
Tuesday as moist, southerly flow develops over the region.
- The pattern remains progressive through the remainder of the
week, with periods of unsettled weather continuing into next
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...An upper-level low that brought severe weather to
northern Utah yesterday will continue to shift eastward and out of
our region today. Northwesterly flow behind the associated cold
front will keep conditions cool and dry across most of the region
today. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon across northeast Utah, including the Uinta Basin,
as some modest instability lingers in this area. Chances for
severe storms are unlikely, with the main threat being heavy rain
and small hail from any storms that develop. Continued dry and
mild conditions prevail areawide on Sunday under a transient
ridge. High temperatures this weekend will run around 5-10 degrees
below seasonal normals across northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming, whilst highs across southern Utah remain near- normal.
Dry conditions will be short lived as a closed low drops down the
coast of California on Monday, introducing moist, southerly flow
over the region. A shortwave ejects off this parent low late
Monday into Tuesday, lifting northeastward across the forecast
area. As such, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to
mainly southwest Utah on Monday, with coverage expanding northward
across the remainder of the region Tuesday. PWAT values appear to
be quite meager through this period, so the heavy rainfall threat
will be more limited. A microburst threat appears more favorable
from these environmental conditions, especially on Tuesday
afternoon and evening, as instability peaks with the passage of
the shortwave.
Ridging develops mid-week through the end of the work week,
favoring dry and mild conditions through this period. The overall
pattern remains progressive, however, with ensembles hinting at
the potential for deeper trough to impact the western US with more
unsettled weather by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION, Issued 12:15 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026...
KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast to persist at the KSLC terminal
through the TAF period. Diurnal wind shifts are expected with the
lake breeze pushing through around 16z with a northwesterly wind
shift.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected
across all airspace terminals, though KEVW and KLGU may briefly see
MVFR CIGs and/or vsbys with isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear skies with northwest winds will
prevail across most sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front is currently making its way through the
state, keeping conditions dry across much of northern, central,
and southern UT. However, for areas across eastern UT and far
northern UT near the ID border, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and subside
around sunset. Thunderstorm intensity is not forecast to reach
severe thresholds with todays storms featuring frequent lightning,
gusts to around 40mph, and perhaps a few instances of small hail.
Starting Sunday, the cold front will have pushed through the area
in its entirety with drier and cooler air filling in its wake
keeping chances for precipitation near zero through Monday.
Starting early Tuesday, an active pattern looks to redevelop with
winds clocking to southerly, enabling moisture to return to much
of the state increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms once
again through the remainder of the week.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Whitlam
AVIATION...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
