Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to transition into a post-tropical remnant low later Thursday, October 29, 2026, as its moisture begins to spread into portions of the southwestern United States. While the storm's peak winds are expected to diminish, weather officials warn that moisture from the system will contribute to heavy rainfall across parts of the region, including Utah, through the upcoming weekend.
As of 8:00 AM MST on Thursday, October 29, 2026, the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 108.8 West, approximately 215 miles west-northwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The storm was moving north at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The National Hurricane Center reports that Vance is expected to weaken and become a post-tropical remnant low later today or early Friday morning.
The National Hurricane Center noted that while Tropical Storm Vance is struggling to maintain organized deep convection near its center, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone could occur sooner than previously forecast. Despite this weakening, tropical-storm-force winds continue to extend outward up to 90 miles from the storm's center. The National Hurricane Center has advised that interests along the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should continue to monitor the progress of the storm.
The impact of Vance's moisture is expected to be felt across the U.S. Southern Plains and New Mexico today and into Friday. This follows earlier weather patterns in October, including a period in mid-October where the Weather Prediction Center maintained a slight risk of excessive rainfall across much of Utah along the Wasatch range due to an amplified mid to upper level trough.
Forecasts for Utah indicate a wet weekend ahead. For areas 2 miles southwest of Salt Lake City, the National Weather Service predicts a 20% chance of rain on Friday, October 30, 2026, followed by a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday night. Saturday, October 31, 2026, is expected to have a 30% chance of rain before noon and a 50% chance of rain after midnight, with a high near 63 degrees Fahrenheit.
In Zion National Park and Zion Canyon, the forecast for the weekend is even more active. On Friday, October 30, 2026, there is an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with higher rainfall amounts possible in thunderstorms. Saturday, October 31, 2026, carries a 100% chance of rain after midnight, with new precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. By Sunday, November 1, 2026, the chance of rain remains at 100%, with rainfall amounts potentially reaching between three quarters and one inch.
Beyond the immediate rainfall, the National Hurricane Center reported that swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Additionally, the National Weather Service noted that an extratropical cyclone is expected to form near 28N137W by tomorrow morning, moving slowly eastward and potentially bringing fresh to strong winds to the Gulf of California.
As the system moves, the National Weather Service highlights that moisture from Vance, combined with other Pacific moisture, will be a primary driver for heavy rainfall across the Southwest. In the offshore waters of the Pacific, peak seas are currently reported around 14-15 feet near the center of the storm.
