Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 171014
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
414 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1102 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026...
- A monsoon surge will continue to bring the threat of
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, with the highest threat
across southern Utah, through the weekend and into at least
early next week.
- A Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect for Friday
afternoon and evening for southwest and south central Utah.
Additional Flood Watches may be needed for Saturday in this
area.
&&
.DISCUSSION, Issued 1102 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026...
Utah remains under a southerly flow aloft, with
abundant moisture continuing to spread into the forecast area.
Latest PWAT analysis shows over 1.2 inches across much of Utah,
with up to 1.5 inches across far southwest Utah. The pattern will
remain similar for Friday before the high pressure expands into
Utah over the weekend. This will then either maintain weak flow
overhead and trap moisture in place, or westerlies start to
increase which would bring a very brief and slight drying trend.
Southerly flow looks to return early next week, with moisture
increasing once again.
Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon were efficient in
producing rainfall, with pockets of over 1.5 inches of rain per
radar estimates. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue to linger through at least midnight, with isolated
showers potentially hanging on through much of the night. For
Friday, the abundant moisture will once again produce areas of
heavy rain. However, southwest Utah looks to have a bit less
instability compared to today, while northern Utah will see
slightly greater instability. This would suggest that southern
Utah will be just a slight bit less active overall, while
northern Utah may be a bit more active with a greater chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the Salt Lake, Tooele, and Utah
Valleys. That said, the flash flood threat remains intact,
especially over recent burn scars and prone areas such as slot
canyons, normally dry washes, and areas of steep terrain across
southern Utah. A Flood Watch remains in place for southwest and
south-central Utah for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION, Issued 1102 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026...
KSLC...Winds will remain out of the southeast overnight around 5-
10kts before transitioning to northwesterly most likely between 18-
20z. Showers and thunderstorms developing first over adjacent higher
terrain after 20z and then moving into the Salt Lake Valley after
22z may produce periods of gusty and erratic outflow winds in
addition to moderate-heavy rain and VIS reductions (20% chance of
MVFR VIS) at the terminal. These showers will largely end by ~01-
02z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...While most storms have
diminished, light showers are still lingering near KENV and near
KCDC. At KENV in particular, gusty and erratic outflow winds are
still possible until roughly ~08z or so. Winds will become light and
terrain-driven during the overnight hours statewide if they haven`t
already. Showers and thunderstorms will develop first over Utah`s
mountains after 18z, becoming more widespread into adjacent valleys
after 21z. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty
and erratic outflow winds, moderate-heavy rainfall, and VIS
reductions down to MVFR (10% chance of IFR across southwestern UT).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture remains steadfast over Utah, and
will continue to bring diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity
over Utah`s high terrain features. Like clockwork, storms are
expected to initialize over the mountains around 1200, and will
persist into the evening hours, bringing the threat of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty outflow winds. With generally
light winds overhead, storms will remain anchored to the terrain
for the first hour or two of convection, drifting off terrain into
adjacent valley areas through the afternoon hours. In addition to
the increased daily shower and thunderstorm potential, areawide
minimum humidity will bottom out around the 30-40 percent mark,
with the northwest low lying areas reaching as low as 20-25
percent. Overnight humidity recoveries are expected to be good to
excellent. This trend is expected to continue through the next
seven days, and potentially beyond... so long as the monsoonal
moisture remains in place.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
UTZ122>128.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Webber
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
