Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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049
FXUS65 KSLC 111901
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
101 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1002 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026...
- A significant widespread heatwave will develop this weekend
into early next week, with temperatures challenging daily,
monthly, and even all-time high temperature records.
- Monsoonal moisture will spread into the area during the early
part of the upcoming week, remaining in place for much of next
week. This will bring an elevated threat of flash flooding
across southern Utah.
&&
.DISCUSSION, Issued 1002 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026...
A strong ridge centered over southern California
continues to make its way east this evening. Under the influence
of this feature, skies are mostly clear with generally light
winds. Maxes have trended upward, averaging 5-8F above seasonal
normals.
The ridge will continue its eastward trek over the weekend as it
continues to strengthen, bringing a significant heat wave to the
area, peaking on Sunday. Just about all valley locations will see
high temperatures at least at or above 100F for Saturday into
Sunday, with maxes running up to 15F above normal, the greatest
anomalies being found over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.
These temperatures will challenge many daily records, and in the
case of northern portions of the area will challenge monthly and
all time records as well. Logan continues to see a 75 percent
chance in the latest model guidance of surpassing its all-time
record high of 103F, and Evanston continues to have over a 60
percent chance to surpass its all time record of 95F. Farther
south, the chances of breaking the all time record have gone down,
with guidance now indicating a 10 percent chance of tying or
breaking the all-time record of 107F in Salt Lake City.
Regardless, temperatures this hot will bring a significantly
increased risk of heat-related illness to the general population
in most valley and mountain valley locations through the weekend
and in the case of the northern valleys, through Monday as well.
To keep safe from the heat, those with outdoor activities planned
should move them away from the hottest parts of the day if
possible and stay hydrated. The best way, however, to prevent
heat-related illnesses would be to stay inside in cooled areas if
possible.
By Sunday, the center of the ridge is expected to move east of the
area, putting Utah and southwest Wyoming under a southerly flow
aloft. Confidence remains high that this flow will start advecting
monsoonal moisture into the state from the south as early as
Sunday night, with at least some convection developing over
southern Utah by Monday afternoon and across much of the forecast
area by Tuesday. By the middle of the week, it is looking
increasingly likely that the flow aloft will become more light and
variable in between weather features to the west and east. This
will limit the increase of moisture over the area, but will also
keep the existing anomalously high moisture in place. Thus, the
threat of convection and thus flash flooding, particularly for
southern Utah, is expected to continue for much of the upcoming
week.
&&
.AVIATION, Issued 524 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026...
-- Changed Discussion --KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Southeasterly winds this morning will transition to northwesterly
during the 18-19Z timeframe, before returning to southeasterly
around 03Z this evening.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Winds will remain terrain driven at all
terminals throughout the day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --An anomalously strong high pressure is centered overhead.
This is creating near record temperatures, particularly across
the northern half of Utah, along with very dry conditions. This
heat is creating unstable conditions this afternoon and again
tomorrow afternoon, but the winds will remain relatively light
diurnally driven. There is ~30% of high based convection across
the terrain of southern Utah Sunday afternoon as some moisture
creeps into the southwest.
By Monday the high shifts to the east. This will help to
gradually cool temperatures and open the door for a better
moisture tap. Initially, this moisture will mostly be in the form
of increased cloud cover and terrain driven convection across
southern Utah. But as the week progresses that moisture will
expand further north and develop more easily across both valleys
and mountains.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --UT...Extreme Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ101>108-114-
116-118>121.
Extreme Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ115-122-
128>131.
WY...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ021.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Traphagan
AVIATION...Seaman
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
