A very strong El Niño is expected to drive weather patterns across the United States this winter, resulting in unusual warmth across the nation's northern tier and increased storminess across the southern tier, according to a forecast released Oct. 15, 2026, by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.
Temperature and Precipitation Trends
The meteorological winter forecast, which covers the months of December 2026, January 2027, and February 2027, suggests that no part of the United States is forecast to experience a colder-than-normal winter. While the Deep South and Florida are expected to see near-normal temperatures, the Southwest faces equal chances of experiencing temperatures that are either above or below normal.
In the northern United States, the greatest likelihood for above-normal temperatures includes the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes states, and New England. Conversely, the Climate Prediction Center noted that only the northern Rockies and the northern Great Lakes are expected to see a drier-than-normal winter.
Impact of Jet Stream Shifts
Precipitation patterns are expected to shift significantly due to the influence of El Niño. The Climate Prediction Center predicts wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier, spanning from the Southwest to the Southeast, as well as along the East Coast.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, stated that a very strong El Niño will likely cause a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S. This shift tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South. Graham noted that while higher chances of rain and snow might provide relief to areas suffering from drought, excessive precipitation on dry soil can trigger destructive mudslides and flash floods, advising communities to plan ahead.
Polar Vortex and Snow Uncertainty
While the forecast identifies general precipitation trends, it does not specify the exact form of precipitation, such as rain, snow, or ice. Forecasters noted that snow forecasts are dependent upon the specific strength and track of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance.
Regarding the polar vortex, NOAA's Jon Gottschalk said that the presence of a powerful El Niño tends to foster a stronger and more stable polar vortex. This stability would favor fewer Arctic air outbreaks over the United States, though Gottschalk cautioned that cold outbreaks and snowstorms remain possible, even if they are less likely.
Drought Outlook
The forecast also addressed ongoing drought conditions. According to the Climate Prediction Center, drought conditions are expected to improve or end in the Southwest, the Southeast, parts of the East Coast, and the Southern Great Plains.
However, the report indicates that drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen in certain regions, including the northern Rockies and parts of eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon.
Private Forecast Comparison
The current winter outlook aligns with earlier predictions from private forecasters. AccuWeather released its own winter forecast earlier in October, which also predicts that a powerful El Niño will dominate the 2026-27 winter season. AccuWeather's model suggests a wetter, stormier pattern for much of the West and the southern United States, while the northern tier anticipates a warmer winter with less snow than normal.
Historical Context
The focus on El Niño follows years of varying climate activity. For instance, on May 21, 2020, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had predicted an above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, citing multiple climate factors that indicated a 60% chance of an above-normal season.
