Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 291831
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1231 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1102 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026...
- Heavy rainfall ongoing across central and southern Utah will
gradually decrease in coverage overnight into early Tuesday morning.
- Showers and thunderstorms reinvigorate Tuesday afternoon across
southern Utah, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall remains in effect.
- Dry and mild conditions prevail Wednesday onward areawide as high
pressure develops across the western US.
&&
.DISCUSSION, Issued 1102 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026...
Current radar depicts a wide swath of rainfall
ongoing across much of central and southern Utah generally east of
the I-15 corridor. As instability has waned this evening, embedded
convection has eased, taking on a more stratiform mode across most
of the area. Despite being more stratiform in nature, the deep
tropical moisture in place has allowed for rainfall rates to remain
quite efficient, which will exacerbate impacts in areas already
experiencing ongoing flooding. This swath of rainfall will decrease
in coverage as it continues to slowly track northeastward overnight
before tapering off over central Utah mid-Tuesday morning.
The associated upper-level low continues to dig further southeast
into Arizona on Tuesday, with far southern Utah remaining in a
favorable area for wrap-around moisture. Ample instability will
still exist on the northern periphery of the low, allowing widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon
across southern Utah. Heaviest rainfall is favored across the higher
terrain given easterly flow resulting in upslope enhancement, and
areas near the Arizona border. Given widespread heavy rainfall on
Monday has primed soils across the area, the flash flood risk will
remain elevated into Tuesday evening across much of southern Utah.
Northern and central Utah will remain under the influence of dry,
northerly flow on Tuesday, resulting in cooler temperatures and
limited chances for precipitation. This dry airmass will push into
southern Utah overnight into Wednesday morning, ushering out any
lingering precipitation. Models still show a strong consensus in
longwave ridging developing across the western US mid-to-late week,
indicative of a gradual warming and drying trend through this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the
period. Dry and stable conditions with mostly clear skies will
continue. Light northerly winds will continue through most of the
period with only a brief and light southerly flow overnight, if at
all, between 09-13Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for
the entire airspace through the period. Dry and stable with mostly
clear skies across the northern airspace with light northerly winds
will continue. Cloud cover with some lingering moisture across the
southern airspace throughout the day with ~30% chance of rain
showers impacting southern terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1212 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across primarily southern UT through 12-2PM and persist through
the late evening hours as tropical moisture continues to work its
way north. The threat for flash flooding exists across southern UT
once again today, with a particular emphasis for interests located
along the AZ border, such as the Telegraph Flats.
Starting tomorrow, high pressure builds in bringing mild
and dry conditions to UT. This is forecast to persist through the
weekend, with temperatures warming slightly above normals as well.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ123>131.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Whitlam
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
