Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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050
FXUS65 KSLC 240448
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1048 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to widely scattered, generally weak, diurnal convection
can be expected through Friday, otherwise dry and stable through
the end of the week.
- An approaching trough will bring cooler temperatures and the
potential for more widespread precipitation on Monday, with
amounts being dependent on its ability to tap tropical moisture.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Utah is on the western periphery of a mean upper
ridge covering much of the central CONUS. Weak troughiness
permeating this ridge across Arizona through Utah and into western
Colorado on Thursday will result in isolated to widely scattered
and generally weak diurnal convection over the higher terrain of
southern Utah, as moisture availability remains rather low to aid
anything particularly substantial. Main threats from convection
will be locally gusty winds.
On Friday, southwesterly winds will increase ahead of an upper
trough grazing northern Utah Friday night. This trough will
maintain a threat of widely scattered convection, mainly over the
higher terrain and eastern valleys before a drier airmass arrives
on Saturday.
Focus then shifts to an upper trough that is forecast to deepen
off the West Coast by Sunday morning. While there is still some
model spread regarding the strength of this trough, it will have
the potential to bring more widespread precipitation to the area.
However, precipitation amounts will be dependent on how much
tropical moisture the trough will be able to tap from tropical
systems Polo and Odalys in the eastern Pacific. This will also be
partially dependent on the strength of the trough. The 19z NBM
mean has higher QPF than the 50th percentile, which generally
shows less than 0.1 inches in most valleys over a 24-hr period on
Sunday. Current forecast has high PoPs but maintains modest QPF
for this period pending better model agreement. By midweek, a weak
ridge to more of a zonal flow pattern will become established
over the area, with should bring a return to drier conditions.
Temperature-wise, expect a gradual warming trend through the
weekend, then cooler temperatures behind the trough on Monday.
Temperatures should then gradually climb through midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
KSLC...VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.
Southeasterly winds will persist overnight before switching to
northwest late Thursday morning. This change may occur as early as
16Z, however speeds will likely remain less than 6 kts through early
afternoon.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail at
all TAFs sites through the period with winds remaining light and
diurnally driven. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the terrain of southern Utah Thursday afternoon, however the
chance of thunderstorms at KCDC and KSGU is less than 20%.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 110 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026...
Mostly dry and stable conditions have settled into
the region with warm days and cool nights that will help relative
humidity recover each night. Winds will also be light and diurnally
driven over the coming days. Moisture stays slightly elevated
across southeastern Utah which will keep slight chances for isolated
diurnal thunderstorms through the next several days. The next chance
for widespread precipitation will be late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Seaman
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
