Following the Eaton and Palisades fires in January 2025, which destroyed over 16,000 structures and resulted in 31 deaths, individuals used prediction market platforms to bet on wildfire progression. On the platform Polymarket, users wagered approximately $1.2 million on various queries related to fire containment and acreage burned.
Fire survivors have described the practice of betting on disasters as morally reprehensible and heartless. Susan Sherman, who lost her childhood home in the Palisades Fire, characterized the prediction markets as a wild west environment.
Ethicists have raised alarms that these markets could incentivize dangerous behavior. Ann Skeet of the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics noted that such markets could support bad actors, while a U.S. Forest Service spokesperson stated that systems tying financial gain to wildfire outcomes risk encouraging misuse, including arson.
There are also concerns regarding potential insider trading by land managers or firefighters who might possess exclusive information about fire behavior or agency plans.
A new platform called Wyldfyre has launched with a focus on California wildfires, using NASA and National Interagency Fire Center data to price risk. While the site currently allows for simulated trading, it indicates that real-money betting is expected in the future.
Despite claims from proponents that these markets provide useful crowdsourced intelligence, official firefighting agencies do not use prediction market data for operational decisions. A spokesperson for the U.S. Forest Service stated they rely on validated science and proven predictive tools rather than speculation. Similarly, Phillip SeLegue of CAL FIRE noted that their modeling is deterministic and physics-based, rather than informed by wagering systems.
Legislative efforts to regulate prediction markets are underway. In March, representatives from Utah and California introduced federal legislation aimed at prohibiting bets related to illegal activities or deaths. While Minnesota has moved to outlaw the advertising of such markets, no current state or federal proposals explicitly include wildfire betting.
