Household water costs could nearly double in some American cities as climate change places increasing stress on municipal water systems, according to a peer-reviewed study published this week in the journal Nature Sustainability. The research indicates that rising temperatures and drier climates are forcing cities to consider expensive infrastructure upgrades that may significantly impact resident utility bills.
Rising Costs of Infrastructure
Researchers at Stanford University and other institutions focused their study on the coastal city of Santa Cruz, California, to model how a hotter, drier climate affects water expenses. Lead author Jennifer Skerker, who conducted the research while earning her doctorate in civil and environmental engineering at Stanford, noted that while the study centered on Santa Cruz, the outlook remains similar for many other municipalities facing the need for costly system upgrades.
According to the report published by Stateline on July 9, the financial burden of new water transport systems, sewage water reuse systems, and desalination plants is likely to be passed directly to consumers. Skerker, who currently works for a local water utility, stated that without significant government funding, individual water systems will be forced to bear these costs themselves.
Impact on Low-Income Residents
The research highlights a growing conflict between maintaining reliable water access and ensuring the service remains affordable. Skerker noted that this tension "really pits water affordability against water reliability," emphasizing that both elements are necessary for safe, accessible, and affordable water for all populations.
While low-income residents typically use significantly less water than the general population, they face a disproportionate impact from rising rates. As costs increase, these residents must dedicate a larger share of their limited resources to utility payments. This trend follows a period where water rates have already increased at three times the rate of inflation over the last twenty years, driven by the need for providers to address deferred maintenance backlogs and update aging infrastructure.
Water and Energy Affordability
The study arrives at a time when many American households are already facing financial strain from other utilities. Data from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association shows that one in six American households is currently behind on utility bills.
Skerker suggested that water affordability must be integrated into broader discussions regarding energy affordability. She noted that as prices rise, households may face difficult choices, such as making trade-offs between paying for water or energy, or choosing between utilities and essential needs like groceries or medical bills. Skerker warned that some households might even reduce their water usage to levels that are not healthy in order to manage costs.
Future Economic Scenarios
In cities like Santa Cruz, efforts to mitigate water scarcity have already yielded results, but options for further reduction are narrowing. By 2021, residents in the city had successfully cut water use by nearly two-thirds over a twenty-year period. However, because the area relies entirely on surface water, there are few remaining low-cost methods to increase the available supply.
The study presented several financial scenarios based on different climate conditions and levels of investment. In one of the most extreme drought scenarios, researchers predicted that median monthly water bills for the poorest residents could rise from approximately $60 to $111 by the middle of this century, when measured in 2026 dollars. Such a spike would result in more than one-third of Santa Cruz households struggling to afford their water service.
National Outlook
While the study acknowledges that cities with access to lower-cost water sources, more interconnected systems, or larger reservoirs may not see such rapid increases in billing, it does predict the emergence of "water affordability hotspots" across the United States. As more regions struggle to source and treat sufficient drinking water, the cost of service is expected to accelerate.
Skerker characterized the current trajectory as unsustainable and called for increased support from both state and federal governments to help municipalities manage these escalating costs.
