Utah is facing equal chances for both temperature and precipitation during the 2026-27 winter season, according to a seasonal outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The data suggests a normal winter for the state, as the probability tilt shows no usable signal for the region.
In Salt Lake City, the median first measurable snow typically occurs on November 15. The city averages 54 inches of seasonal snowfall, with January serving as the snowiest month. January also sees a normal low of 23 degrees Fahrenheit.
While the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issues probability tilts for temperature and precipitation, officials noted that these seasonal forecasts cannot predict specific storms or total snowfall amounts. The current background state involves El Niño conditions that are present and strengthening. In an August 13, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, the CPC gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the fall and winter of 2026-27.
The Utah snow season varies by location, with snow belts often producing totals significantly higher than the Salt Lake City average. Notable high-snow zones include the Wasatch mountains, specifically Alta and Snowbird, the Bear River Range above Logan, and the Uintas.
In terms of winter hazards, Utah has a low risk of ice storms. While the state rarely sees damaging freezing rain, black ice on roads remains a concern following thaw-refreeze cycles.
