The No. 8 BYU Cougars will host the No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the first top 10 matchup in the history of LaVell Edwards Stadium, according to an October 11 report from ESPN FPI. Both teams have lived up to preseason expectations by entering the game ranked inside the top 10.
ESPN FPI gives BYU a 21.8% chance to defeat Notre Dame. Following a victory over Iowa State, BYU climbed to 14th nationally in the FPI rankings. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has moved to the top spot in the country after defeating Stanford by double digits.
Since suffering two early losses in the 2025 season, the Fighting Irish have won every subsequent game by at least ten points.
The FPI model shows that BYU has a 50% chance of winning 10 or more games in 2026. This marks a shift from the preseason most likely outcome of a 9-3 regular season, as a 10-2 season is now the most likely outcome following BYU's 5-0 start.
To reach 11 wins, BYU would need to win every game it is favored to win, which includes a 27% chance to go 5-0 against UCF, Arizona State, Baylor, Kansas, and Cincinnati. The model gives BYU a 51% chance to go 1-1 in its upcoming games against Notre Dame and Utah.
BYU currently holds a 41% chance to reach the College Football Playoff and maintains the third-best odds to win the Big 12. Among the seven teams with at least a 1.9% chance to win the conference, there is an 83.3% chance that either Texas Tech, Utah, or BYU will win the league.
Currently, nine Big 12 teams have been eliminated from the title race: Iowa State, UCF, Cincinnati, TCU, Arizona State, Colorado, West Virginia, Kansas, and Kansas State.
While the FPI model provides macro-level predictions, it may not account for specific context. For example, the model may inflate BYU's chances by not accounting for injuries to key players like LJ Martin, or it may miss instances where the team took knees to give backups repetitions.
