A new collaborative report from University of Utah researchers, coordinated by the Wilkes Center for Climate Science & Policy, provides state agencies and policymakers with an analysis of the growing risks posed by dust from the exposed Great Salt Lake lakebed. According to a September 15 report, the study evaluates the potential costs of controlling dust and the long-term benefits of stabilizing lake levels.
The report, titled Options and Costs for Great Salt Lake Dust Control, was commissioned by the Utah Division of Water Resources to assist with the Great Salt Lake Basin Integrated Plan. It provides scientific, economic, and engineering data to help state planners evaluate where lakebed dust control measures may be necessary.
Kevin Perry, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Utah and lead author of the report, said the research offers an opportunity to be strategic by using data to identify high-risk areas and protect communities with the greatest exposure. Perry noted that engineered controls should be reserved for locations where evidence shows they are necessary.
As water levels in the Great Salt Lake have declined, more than 800 square miles of lakebed have been exposed to potential wind erosion. Research by Perry identified approximately 70 square miles as active dust hotspots, an area that could expand to as much as 187 square miles if groundwater levels decline or protective surface crusts degrade.
The analysis indicates that dust exposure is not shared equally across northern Utah. Residents in Tooele County have the highest average modeled exposure, followed by Salt Lake County. The report also identifies higher modeled exposure among certain groups, including foreign-born residents, non-citizens, people without health insurance, and those with lower educational attainment.
Health-related costs are projected to be significant. At a lake elevation of 4,192 feet, the report associates dust with an estimated $115.79 million in annual health costs, including approximately 6.24 premature deaths and 17,748 school absences. If the lake is maintained at a minimum healthy elevation of 4,198 feet, annual health costs fall to $73.39 million. The report estimates that maintaining current conditions could result in $5.79 billion in cumulative health costs through 2060, compared to $3.71 billion if the lake is maintained at the minimum healthy elevation.
The report evaluates various engineered dust controls, such as chemical suppressants, flooding, and managed vegetation, noting that no single approach is appropriate for every location. Estimated 50-year costs for these controls range from $3.3 million to $448 million per square mile. For the 70 square miles identified as active hotspots, projected costs range from approximately $3.2 billion to over $31 billion.
The study suggests that stabilizing lake levels may be the most durable long-term method to reduce dust at its source by covering the exposed playa. While engineered controls are an option, the report concludes that lake-level stabilization and targeted engineered controls should be viewed as complementary strategies. Laura Vernon, a Great Salt Lake Basin Planner at the Utah Division of Water Resources, stated that delivering water to the lake is the most cost-effective way to suppress dust and prevent billions in taxpayer-funded mitigation.
