Utah is expected to experience above-average rainfall and thunderstorm activity during the 2026 North American monsoon season, according to a July 14 weather update from OpenSnow. The forecast for increased precipitation through September follows a period of sustained, record-breaking heat across parts of the Western United States.
Increased Rainfall Forecast
Meteorologist Alan Smith reported on July 14 that while brief monsoon-like patterns were observed in late June and early July, a sustained monsoonal pattern only began to develop within the past few days. The incoming moisture is arriving on the heels of a significant heatwave that recently impacted much of the West.
As of mid-July, weather models indicate high confidence for above-average mid-to-ty late summer rain specifically across Utah, as well as Western Wyoming, Eastern Idaho, and Southwest Montana. This pattern is expected to remain active through at least late July.
Model Projections
Medium-range weather models, which provide 15-day projections, have shown a consistent pattern change toward monsoonal flow. Specifically, the European Ensemble Model, which averages 50 simulations, projects above-average precipitation anomalies across large portions of the West through July 29.
The American GFS Ensemble Model provides similar projections, also forecasting above-average precipitation across much of the Western region.
Extended Seasonal Outlook
Longer-range forecasts suggest the monsoon activity will persist into late summer. The European Weekly Model, which extends its outlook up to 46 days, maintains a strong monsoon signal for much of the West from mid-July through the end of August, though it notes a dry signal for the Pacific Northwest outside the core region.
Subseasonal and seasonal models, covering periods of two to six weeks and one to three months respectively, also align with an active season. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), a collection of seasonal models, similarly shows a strong monsoon signal for July through September across much of the Southwest and the Rockies.
Summer Temperature Trends
Temperature forecasts for the summer season show a preference for above-average temperatures across much of the Northwest and West Central U.S. The highest confidence for these warmer temperatures is found in parts of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Alberta, and British Columbia.
In contrast, the Four Corners region and Southern California face equal chances of above or below-normal temperatures. Meteorologists noted that the monsoonal flow could potentially provide a cooling effect to those areas at certain times.
Historical Climate Comparisons
When evaluating historical analogs—past years with similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions—forecasters identified several key matches for the 2026 season. The strongest analog matches include the years 2023, 2015, 1997, and 1972. Moderate matches were also considered from 1991, 1987, and 1982.
Using this approach, a 'westerly focused' monsoon signal emerges, which aligns with earlier summer weather outlooks published in April. While the analog approach suggests drier conditions for Southern Arizona and neutral signals for Colorado, it also indicates a potential for wet anomalies in the Pacific Northwest during late summer and early fall.
El Niño and Local Preparedness
The current season is also being influenced by strong El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. While recent media coverage has focused on the rapid strengthening of El Niño, meteorologists are weighing its impact alongside other climatic factors to refine the 2026 monsoon forecast.
In Summit County, local authorities maintain dedicated emergency management resources to handle regional preparedness and response needs.
