Aug 29, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 29 12:17:06 UTC 2026 ( | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
CIG1
106,343
2,833,156
Salt Lake City, UT...West Valley City, UT...Provo, UT...West Jordan, UT...Orem, UT...
15 %
36,934
2,330,186
Salt Lake City, UT...West Valley City, UT...Provo, UT...West Jordan, UT...Orem, UT...
5 %
356,392
9,545,656
Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
102,740
2,815,870
Salt Lake City, UT...West Valley City, UT...Provo, UT...West Jordan, UT...Orem, UT...
SPC AC 291217
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NEVADA INTO NORTHERN UTAH...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts
of the northern Great Basin, northern/central Rockies, and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts are the main threat.
...Great Basin into Central/Northern Rockies...
A broad upper trough is present today across the Southern Rockies
into OK/TX, with relatively fast flow aloft extending from NV into
WY. IR satellite imagery suggests considerable cloud cover is
affecting much of the Great Basin region, which will limit daytime
heating/destabilization and overall severe threat. Nevertheless,
there appears to be a corridor from eastern NV across parts of
north-central UT where sufficient heating will result in steep
low-level lapse rates and favorable CAPE profiles for a few
high-based thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. Supercell
structures are also possible in this corridor, suggesting a risk of
hail in the strongest storms.
...Northern Plains...
Similar to yesterday, clusters of high-based showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across WY into parts of the
Dakotas/NE this afternoon and evening. Favorable winds aloft,
combined with at least marginal CAPE will aid in a risk of locally
damaging wind gusts and hail.
..Hart/Broyles.. 08/29/2026
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