New research examining Latter-day Saint trends in the United States shows a marked decline in religious retention over recent decades. According to data from the General Social Survey, retention rates for those raised Latter-day Saint dropped from 82% in the 1980s to approximately 46% by the 2010s and beyond.
Recent surveys from 2024 and 2025 provide more current estimates, placing adult retention between approximately 49.4% and 53.3%. However, longitudinal data for youth ages 12–18 indicates a higher retention rate of roughly 75.7% when tracking individuals from 2016 to 2024.
The study identifies several key predictors that increase the likelihood of deidentification among youth. Researchers found that not feeling God's presence in daily life, agreeing that the Church should accept same-sex marriage, and being troubled by the Church's stance on political issues were statistically significant predictors of leaving the faith.
Specifically, for those who almost never felt God's presence, the deidentification rate was 24%, compared to only 4% for those who felt God's presence every day. Furthermore, 28% of those who strongly agreed that the Church should accept same-sex marriage deidentified, while only 5% of those who strongly disagreed did so.
Digital media use also plays a role. The study found that owning a smartphone was linked to a higher likelihood of deidentifying, with youth with smartphones being nearly three times more likely to leave the faith compared to those without.
Demographic factors also influence retention patterns. Among women, researchers noted a striking generational difference; 18-year-old Latter-day Saint women had a retention rate of just below 40%, while the oldest women in the data showed a 60% retention rate. In contrast, men's retention rates remained more stable across generations.
Economic and educational levels also correlate with retention. Those earning less than $50,000 annually had retention rates at or below 50%, while those in higher income categories approached 60%. Similarly, individuals with a bachelor's degree or graduate school education showed a retention rate of approximately 60%, compared to nearly 50% for those without a college degree.
The study categorized those who no longer identify as Latter-day Saint into four distinct groups based on their beliefs and attitudes. These included Faith Staying, Faith Bordering, Faith Distancing, and Faith Leaving.
While the Faith Leaving group largely rejects religious importance and identifies primarily as Atheist/Agnostic, many others who deidentified still value spirituality. For example, a substantial number of individuals in the Faith Staying and Faith Bordering groups indicated they might eventually recommit to a congregation if prompted by social connections or spiritual signs.
