Utah will require more than 840,000 new homes over the next 30 years, according to a recent analysis of housing capacity. However, without addressing factors that constrain the housing market, the state could face a shortage of nearly 235,000 homes, with 196,000 of those units missing from the Wasatch Front by 2055.
Envision Utah conducted this analysis under the direction of the Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity. Working with RCLCO Real Estate Consultants, the study involved stakeholders including local and state government representatives, developers, and experts in transportation, water, and sewer systems.
The report examined three primary markets for housing development: infill, greenfield, and transit-adjacent.
In infill markets, which consist of existing cities and towns, new housing is primarily limited by planning, zoning, and the readiness to redevelop outdated or underutilized sites. The analysis suggests all available land in infill markets may be used up before 2055, potentially leaving market demand unmet.
Greenfield markets, involving previously vacant or agricultural land, are expected to account for at least half of new homes by 2055. However, these areas face constraints including insufficient planned sewer treatment capacity, potential water availability limits due to increased competition, and transportation infrastructure that may struggle to connect residents to job centers.
In transit-adjacent markets, opportunities are limited by the availability of land ready for development near stations. The study noted that housing demand in these areas exceeds the amount of land likely to become available for redevelopment near urban job centers. In areas outside of more urbanized regions, a significant challenge remains in aligning the timing and design of growth with public transportation investments.
The report concludes that these barriers threaten the ability to support families and future prosperity in Utah. However, the constraints are not absolute. The analysis suggests that through more efficient use of water and land, investment in necessary infrastructure, and the alignment of policies with market needs, the state can secure opportunities for residents to live and work in quality communities.
