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Product Timestamp: 2026-08-29 13:25 UTC
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FXUS65 KSLC 291325
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
725 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1104 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026...
- Scattered to numerous showers with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will continue through the night into Saturday
morning, increasing in coverage for Saturday afternoon and
evening.
- The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms over northern
portions of the area will increase on Saturday afternoon with
strong winds and hail being the main threats.
- The threat of flash flooding will be elevated across the area on
Saturday.
- An active pattern will continue through at least the first half
of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION, Issued 1104 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026...
High pressure centered just south of the Four
Corners area earlier today will shift east into the southern
Plains this weekend. Meanwhile, upstream, an upper low is
currently noted over Vancouver Island and will move across the
PacNW on Saturday. Utah will be under an increasing southwesterly
flow aloft, while weak ripples will continue to cross the area.
Latest analysis shows around 0.8 inches of PWAT across southern
Utah to around 1.2 inches across northwest Utah.
The weak disturbances rippling through northern Utah tonight will
maintain scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms tonight, especially across northern Utah. This
activity will continue into Saturday morning before thunderstorm
activity increases for the afternoon hours. An unstable airmass
with SBCAPE values near to greater than 1kJ/kg and deep-layer
shear of 40-50kt will bring the potential for strong to severe
storms. There is currently a Slight Risk for severe weather across
northern Utah for Saturday, with the main threats being strong
winds and hail. With more widespread and stronger convection and
potential for training storms on Saturday, the flash flood
potential will also increase. There is currently a Marginal Risk
of excessive rainfall across the entirety of the forecast area for
Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday night as
the upper low crosses Idaho. By Sunday afternoon, this low will be
ejecting east across Montana. Owing to a more stable airmass
behind it, convection is expected to decrease across northwest
Utah while scattered convection will continue across the south
and east, with continued potential for locally strong storms and
flash flooding. While PWATs will trend lower for next week, an
active weather pattern will continue through at least midweek as
several additional weather disturbances continue to eject across
the area.
This active, wet weather pattern will lead to cooler and largely
below normal temperatures Saturday through as least the middle of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
KSLC...Light southeast winds in place are expected to prevail this
morning, but a 20% chance exists that passing showers will
temporarily create erratic directions as they pass. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms will redevelop across northern Utah after
21z and are expected to impact the terminal at times through the
remainder of the evening. Storms this afternoon will be capable of
producing gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 kts, hail,
and heavy rainfall that may result in periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...In large, a brief lull in
convective activity is expected across central and southern Utah
this morning into the early afternoon, with widespread showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping across much of the airspace after
18z...lasting through this evening. Storms this afternoon will be
capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50
kts, hail, and heavy rainfall that may result in periods of MVFR to
IFR conditions, mainly across northern Utah.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 411 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026...
Active weather pattern ahead with deep moisture in place,
and further encroachment of a low pressure system from the
northwest. A frontal boundary over northern Utah will be the focus
for strong to severe thunderstorm development today, with storms
capable of producing gusty and erratic winds in excess of 60 mph,
small hail, and heavy rainfall later this morning through this
afternoon. With high pressure remaining south of the four-corners
region, deep monsoonal moisture will continue to get pumped into
the system from the south aiding an enhanced flash flood potential
from scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across
the south as well. Conditions will remain similar but a bit more
subdued for Sunday, with focus of storm development gradually
shifting more into central and southeastern Utah in time. Bottom
line through the remainder of the weekend...much higher humidity,
elevated wetting rain chances, and cooler temperatures across the
board.
Early next week active weather will remain in place across south-
central and south-eastern Utah, while cooler/drier conditions will
dominate the northwestern half of the district. Drier conditions
are expected to eventually overspread the area mid to late week,
but temperatures will continue to run roughly 5 degrees below
seasonal norms, and RH will continue to run at above normal levels
for this time of the year.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Merrill
FIRE WEATHER...Merrill
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
