New projections from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) place Big 12 rivals BYU and Utah among the conference's elite programs as the 2026 college football season approaches. The data-driven metric identifies both the Cougars and the Utes as high-ranking contenders within the Big 12 hierarchy, reflecting their relative strength compared to the rest of the FBS landscape.
BYU Projections and Strength Metrics
Ranking Details,
According to the ESPN Football Power Index released July 11, 2026, the BYU Cougars hold a significant position in the conference rankings. The index, which serves as a predictive measure of team strength by calculating how many points a team is above or below average, lists BYU with an FPI rank that places them well within the upper echelon of Big 12 competition.
The FPI projections for the Cougars indicate a high level of competitiveness, specifically noting their standing among all FBS teams. While the index provides a granular look at various metrics including strength of record and game control, the primary takeaway for BYU is their established presence as a top-tier threat in the Big 12's current landscape.
Utah Utes Standing in Big 12
and FBS Rankings
The Utah Utes are similarly positioned within the conference rankings according to the 2026 FPI data. The index ranks the Utes as one of the premier programs in the Big 12, mirroring the high expectations set for the program heading into the season.
In addition to the standard power index, ESPN's resume-specific FPI data provides further context regarding Utah's standing. The metrics used by ESPN to determine these rankings are based on 20,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, utilizing current results and remaining schedules to project performance outcomes.
Competitive Landscape of
the Big 12 Conference
The comparison between the two Utah-based programs highlights a highly competitive conference environment. While both BYU and Utah appear near the top of the Big 12 list, they are part of a broader field of contenders that includes programs such as Arizona, Houston, Baylor, and TCU.
The FPI specifically measures how many points above or below average a team is expected to perform. This metric allows analysts to see beyond simple win-loss records by accounting for the strength of schedule (SOS) and the difficulty of remaining opponents. For both BYU and Utah, these projections suggest they are viewed as much more than mere participants in the conference, but rather as central figures in the Big 12's competitive structure.
Understanding FPI Methodology
and Predictive Metrics
The methodology behind ESPN's Football Power Index provides a scientific basis for these rankings. The index incorporates several complex variables, including the Strength of Record (SOR) rank, which reflects the likelihood that an average Top 25 team would achieve a similar record given a specific schedule.
Furthermore, the FPI utilizes Game Control (GC) rankings to reflect the probability that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to finish in the same manner as the subject team. This level of detail is intended to make the FPI the most accurate predictor of performance for the remainder of the season, moving beyond traditional win-loss totals to account for how much dominance a team actually exerts on the field.
Advanced Statistical Indicators
in College Football
Other metrics within the ESPN data set include the Average In-Game Win Probability (AVGWP) rank, which is adjusted for the chance that an average FBS team would control games as effectively as the team in question. This allows for a more nuanced view of how much 'luck' or 'control' is involved in a team's current success.
The data also tracks the Strength of Schedule (SOS) from the perspective of an average Top 25 team, alongside the Remaining Strength of Schedule (REM SOS) from the perspective of an average FBS team. These figures are critical for BYU and Utah as they prepare to navigate their respective Big 12 schedules, which will ultimately determine if their high FPI rankings translate into conference titles or playoff contention.
Looking Ahead to
the 2026 Season
As the 2026 season approaches, the daily updates to the FPI will continue to shift the perceived hierarchy of the Big 12. With both BYU and Utah entering the season with high-ranking projections, the focus remains on whether these programs can maintain their statistical advantages against a challenging slate of conference opponents.
